🇰🇵 North Korea Nuclear Arsenal

In 2025, North Korea has a total of 50 nuclear warheads. They made 3 tests between 2016 and 2017.

North Korea has crossed the psychological threshold from “emergent” to fully established nuclear-armed state. A new U.S. Congressional Research Service update estimates Pyongyang’s inventory at ~50 deployable warheads and fissile material for as many as 90, a rapid expansion driven by continuous plutonium production and a surge in highly-enriched uranium output.

Satellite imagery shows the 5 MWe plutonium reactor at Yongbyon back online, the Experimental Light-Water Reactor in final shake-down testing and the main uranium-enrichment cascade freshly refurbished. These moves, coupled with tunnel maintenance at the Punggye-ri test site, signal Kim Jong Un’s intent to keep adding cores and to resume underground testing at a moment of his choosing.

Force structure and major vectors

Land-based delivery force

Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs):

• Hwasong-15 (liquid, operational since 2017)
• Hwasong-17 (liquid heavy-lift, operational since 2023)
• Hwasong-18 (three-stage, solid fuel), declared operational after only three flights; estimated range ~15,000 km
• Hwasong-19 (solid, first flight Oct 2024), appears MIRV-capable

Intermediate- and medium-range missiles:

• Solid-fuel Hwasong-16A/B IRBMs with maneuverable re-entry vehicles
• Legacy Hwasong-12 and Nodong variants

Short-range/"tactical" systems:

• KN-23, KN-24, and KN-25 rocket artillery, all compatible with the compact Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead

• Long-range cruise missiles:

• Hwasal-1/2 series, terrain-following; new Ra-3 variant tested in April 2024 with a nuclear payload

Sea-based leg

• The conventionally powered Hero Kim Kun Ok (Sinpo-C) ballistic-missile submarine, launched September 2023, remains pierside and has not yet launched any SLBM.
• In March 2025, commercial imagery revealed a nuclear-powered “strategic submarine” under construction at Pongdae Shipyard, estimated 5,000–8,000 tons, likely to carry Pukguksong-6 SLBMs. However, actual deployment is still years away.

Outlook

• A seventh nuclear test is expected at Punggye-ri Tunnel 3, potentially to validate a new H-bomb design for MIRVs or a low-yield tactical warhead.
• Expansion in solid-fuel missile production could lead to more Hwasong-18/19 deployments once industrial capacity is ramped up.
• The Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine may conduct its first patrol, introducing sea-based deterrence.
• Any Russian transfer of technology (guidance systems, RVs, naval reactors) could significantly accelerate the program.

Kim Jong Un now possesses a survivable, growing and diversifying nuclear arsenal that can threaten the continental United States, overwhelm regional missile defenses, and deliver limited tactical strikes. The program is now entrenched; rollback is no longer a viable objective. Future policy will have to shift toward containment and deterrence of a nuclear North Korea.