🇨🇳 China Nuclear Arsenal

In 2025, China has a total of 600 nuclear warheads, including 24 deployed. They made 45 tests between 1964 and 1996.

China’s nuclear force is moving from a “minimum deterrent” posture to a maturing triad able to threaten U.S. and regional targets on short notice. Beijing now fields triple its arsenal from a decade ago and is scaling every leg of the force faster than any other nuclear-armed state.

China’s stockpile climbed from 410 warheads in 2023, to roughly 500 by 2024, and over 600 in 2025, according to SIPRI and the U.S. Defense Department. Nearly all warheads are now produced with modern, compact designs suitable for multiple-warhead (MIRV) payloads, giving the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) the option to surge numbers quickly.

For the first time, analysts judge that a subset of missiles carry mated warheads during peacetime patrols, ending China’s long-standing practice of separate storage. Three sprawling silo complexes at Yumen, Hami and Ordos — some 300 new silos — are entering service, dramatically raising alert levels once filled.

Force structure and major vectors

Land-based missiles

• DF-5B/C liquid-fuel ICBM (silo, 3–10 MIRVs) keeps a small but high-yield role.
• DF-41 solid-fuel ICBM (road-mobile and new silos), Beijing’s first intercontinental system designed from the ground up for MIRVs.
• DF-31AG road-mobile ICBM with improved off-road TEL and suspected MIRV test in 2024.
• DF-26 dual-capable IRBM (“Guam killer”) replacing older DF-21 for regional nuclear reach.

Sea-based deterrent

• Six Type 094/Jin SSBNs now conduct near-continuous patrols with JL-3 SLBMs (~10,000 km).
• Type 096 SSBN program: quieter boats slated to enter service before 2030, each carrying 16–24 JL-3A or follow-on missiles that can strike the U.S. mainland from bastion waters.

Air-delivered systems

• H-6N bomber now operational with the CH-AS-X-13/KD-21 air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM), giving China its first nuclear ALBM capability.
• H-6K cruise-missile carrier modernized with aerial refuelling and new stand-off weapons.
• H-20 stealth bomber remains in advanced development and is expected to provide intercontinental, low-observable reach late this decade.

Outlook

DoD projects >1,000 operational warheads by 2030 and ~1,500 by 2035, driven by silo activation, new SSBNs and expanded warhead production. The PLARF will likely finish populating the three silo fields before 2028, giving the force a survivable mix of mobile and fixed ICBMs at high alert. SSBN upgrades—especially Type 096—will shift a larger share of the deterrent to sea, complicating U.S. anti-submarine warfare planning.

In parallel, the reconstituted bomber arm and the forthcoming H-20 will round out a genuine triad, enabling launch-under-warning options that China previously lacked. Absent arms-control constraints, Beijing can scale to ~2,000 warheads in the 2030s simply by loading its new silos and MIRV-capable missiles, fundamentally altering Asia’s strategic balance and placing acute pressure on U.S. extended deterrence commitments.