🇵🇰 Pakistan Nuclear Arsenal

In 2025, Pakistan has a total of 170 nuclear warheads. They made 2 tests between 1998 and 1998.

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons enterprise has matured into a diversified, high-tempo force, geared to deter India at every rung of conflict through the doctrine of “full-spectrum deterrence.” Rapid growth in plutonium production, the rollout of MIRV-capable missiles, a sea-based arm, and a clandestine long-range program underscore Islamabad’s shift from “credible minimum” to assured cross-domain deterrence by the early 2030s.

Pakistan is assessed to possess 170 assembled warheads, split between highly enriched-uranium primaries and an expanding plutonium line driven by four heavy-water reactors at Khushab. New reactor blocks completed in late 2024 lift potential output to ~40–45 kg of weapons-grade Pu per year—enough for 8–12 additional compact warheads annually. Warheads remain stored disassembled in peacetime, but Strategic Plans Division exercises in 2024–25 showed missile units achieving launch readiness within hours.

Modernization priorities focus on higher survivability, accuracy, and penetration of Indian missile defences:

• Ababeel MRBM (≈2,200 km, MIRV-capable): entered low-rate production after the April 2024 design-certification firing.
• Shaheen-III solid-fuel MRBM (2,750 km): in final user trials; gives full coverage of India and the Gulf.
• Nasr/Hatf-IX SRBM (70 km, low-yield): deployed in regimental batteries for battlefield use against Indian armour.
• Ra’ad-II ALCM (≈600 km): now carried by JF-17 Block II/III and legacy Mirage III/V, extending nuclear reach well inside Indian airspace.
• Babur-3 sea-launched cruise missile (450 km): second successful submerged launch in 2018 confirmed a viable nuclear second-strike option.

Force structure and major vectors

Land-based (Army Strategic Forces Command)

• Medium-/intermediate-range ballistic missiles: Shaheen-II (2,000 km), Shaheen-III (2,750 km), Ababeel (MIRV, 2,200 km), liquid-fuel Ghauri-I/II (1,300–2,300 km).
• Short-range systems: Ghaznavi (300 km) and Nasr (70 km) cover tactical and counter-force missions.
• Ground-launched cruise missile: Babur-1B/2 series (350–700 km) provide low-altitude penetration.

Air-delivered (Air Force Strategic Command)

• Platforms: ~36 Mirage III/V and a growing number of JF-17 Block II/III configured for nuclear strike, the latter now routinely seen with Ra’ad-II ALCM.
• Stores: Ra’ad-I/II standoff missiles plus a limited stock of free-fall gravity bombs for legacy aircraft.

Sea-based (Naval Strategic Forces Command)

• Current hulls: three Agosta-90B AIP submarines retrofitted to fire Babur-3 SLCM.
• Future force: eight Hangor-class (Type-039B) AIP boats under Sino-Pak co-production — two launched in China (April 2024) and one under fabrication at Karachi — will give Pakistan a quiet, dispersed nuclear patrol capability by 2028.

Outlook

• Stockpile trajectory: at present growth rates Pakistan could field 200–225 warheads by 2030, overtaking the U.K. and inching toward French totals.
• Range extension: U.S. intelligence and open-source imagery indicate work on large-diameter rocket motors for a missile able to reach Western Europe or North America; sanctions were imposed on involved entities in early 2025.
• Triad consolidation: serial Hangor deliveries and acceptance of Babur-3 will complete a rudimentary but credible sea-based leg by late decade, complicating Indian targeting calculus.
• Crisis stability: the May 2025 Indo-Pak clash showed that neither side regards the nuclear threshold as sacrosanct, raising the premium on faster, stealthier delivery systems and robust command resilience.
• Risks: rapid arsenal growth amid economic stress and internal militancy increases security burdens; any breakdown in custodial discipline or civil-military relations would amplify proliferation and escalation dangers.