Syria Military Forces 🇸🇾

The Syrian military, once a formidable conventional force in the Levant, is in a state of profound flux following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024. For decades, the Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAAF) were structured to confront Israel, but a decade of grueling civil war fundamentally eroded their capabilities. The recent overthrow of the government has shattered the previous command structure, leaving a fractured and uncertain security landscape. A new, internationally-backed interim government is now faced with the monumental task of rebuilding a national military from the remnants of a shattered army and various militia groups.

A Shadow of its Former Self

Prior to the 2011 uprising, Syria boasted a large military, with an estimated 300,000 active personnel, a substantial number of armored divisions, a large air force, and a significant arsenal of surface-to-surface missiles. However, the civil war decimated these forces through casualties, defections, and equipment losses. By 2023, active personnel had dropped to an estimated 170,000. Much of its heavy equipment, including thousands of tanks, was of Soviet-era vintage and poorly maintained. The domestic defense industry, once notable in the region, was also severely impacted by the conflict. The recent collapse of the Assad regime saw the near-total destruction of what remained of the Syrian Air Force.

Strategic Trends: Uncertainty and Re-alignment

The primary strategic trend for Syria's military is one of complete reconstruction under a new political reality. The new government has appointed a new defense minister and has begun the process of reorganizing the military. This process will be fraught with challenges, including the integration of various armed factions and the establishment of a unified command loyal to the new state. The immediate future of Syria's military strength is therefore highly uncertain and dependent on the political stability of the country and the level of foreign support it receives. Regional dynamics have also been significantly altered, with the influence of former backers Russia and Iran weakened, while Turkey and other regional actors are reassessing their positions. The strategic threat to Israel, once a defining feature of the Syrian military, has been significantly diminished in its conventional sense, though the risk of instability and non-state actor threats emanating from Syrian territory remains high.