Sixth-Generation Fighters: NGAD, GCAP, and FCAS Programs

Last updated on 8 November 2025

The landscape of sixth-generation combat aircraft development witnessed a sharp divergence in trajectories throughout 2025. As of late 2025, the three primary global programs—the United States' Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), and the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS)—have separated into distinct distinct stages of maturity and viability. While the tri-national GCAP solidified its industrial structure and accelerated toward a flying demonstrator, the U.S. efforts entered a period of strategic re-evaluation, and the European FCAS program faced existential political and industrial disputes.

United States: NGAD and F/A-XX

The United States Air Force and Navy programs, previously considered the frontrunners in sixth-generation development, encountered significant fiscal and doctrinal headwinds in 2025.

USAF NGAD Status

The Air Force's NGAD program, intended to replace the F-22 Raptor, remains in a state of "strategic pause" as of late 2025. Following a decision in mid-2024 to delay the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) contract award, the service extended the Technology Maturation and Risk Reduction (TMRR) contracts for participating vendors.

• Contract Status: No prime contractor was selected in 2025. The decision has been effectively deferred to the incoming administration in early 2026.
• Design Re-evaluation: The pause stems from a mismatch between the projected unit cost—estimated at "hundreds of millions" per airframe—and the evolving threat landscape. The Air Force is currently analyzing whether a smaller, less expensive platform relying more heavily on uncrewed systems could meet air superiority requirements.
• Propulsion: The Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program continues, with GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney developing the XA100 and XA101 adaptive cycle engines, respectively. These powerplants remain a core requirement for whichever airframe concept is ultimately selected.

US Navy F/A-XX

The Navy's parallel F/A-XX program, aimed at replacing the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, faced severe budgetary constraints in the Fiscal Year 2026 cycle.

• Funding Cuts: The program received approximately $74 million in the FY2026 defense bill, a steep reduction from the $453 million allocated in FY2025.
• Industrial Base: Following the elimination of Lockheed Martin from the competition in early 2025, Boeing and Northrop Grumman remain the presumptive finalists. However, the Navy's "Unfunded Priorities List" for FY2026 included a $1.4 billion request to keep the program viable and attempt a contract award, signaling a disconnect between service requirements and Congressional appropriations.

Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)

In contrast to the crewed platforms, the uncrewed CCA component of the NGAD "Family of Systems" achieved major milestones in 2025.

• Increment 1: As of November 2025, both General Atomics (YFQ-42A) and Anduril (YFQ-44A) have commenced flight testing of their respective prototypes.
• Increment 2: The Air Force awarded concept refinement contracts to nine vendors in late 2025, expanding the industrial base to include non-traditional defense firms and exploring designs ranging from "expendable" to "exquisite."

GCAP: Global Combat Air Programme

The tri-national effort between the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy has emerged as the most stable and bureaucratically mature of the three major programs as of late 2025.

Industrial and Political Structure

2025 marked the formal operationalization of the program's governance structures.

• GIGO Establishment: The GCAP International Government Organisation (GIGO) was ratified by all three parliaments and established its headquarters in Reading, UK.
• Joint Venture: A new industrial joint venture (JV) comprising BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italy), and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) was formally incorporated. The leadership structure features a rotating CEO, with the initial executive drawn from Leonardo.
• Workshare: The partners reached a "balanced" workshare agreement that largely avoided the paralysis seen in other European programs. The division of labor assigns the UK and Japan co-leadership on radar and sensing technologies, while Italy leads on Infrared Search and Track (IRST) systems.

Development Timeline

The program remains on schedule for its key milestones.

• Demonstrator: Construction of the flying demonstrator is underway, with the first flight scheduled for 2027.
• Propulsion: Rolls-Royce, IHI Corporation, and Avio Aero are progressing on the joint engine demonstrator, having completed initial high-pressure compressor tests earlier in the year.
• Entry into Service: The partners continue to target 2035 for operational capability, driven by the replacement needs for the Eurofighter Typhoon (UK/Italy) and Mitsubishi F-2 (Japan).

FCAS: Future Combat Air System

The Franco-German-Spanish FCAS program faces a critical juncture in late 2025, characterized by deepening industrial friction and high-level political threats.

Phase 1B and Industrial Deadlock

The program is currently in Phase 1B (Technology Maturation), which is scheduled to run through 2026. However, progress has been stymied by a persistent dispute between the prime contractors, Dassault Aviation (France) and Airbus Defence and Space (representing Germany and Spain).

• Design Authority: Dassault has maintained its demand for full "architect" status and design authority over the Next Generation Fighter (NGF). Airbus has contested this, seeking a more equal partnership in the flight control and stealth domains.
• Demonstrator Delay: The "Phase 2" contract, necessary to build the physical demonstrator aircraft, has not been signed. Consequently, the target date for the demonstrator's first flight has slipped from 2027 to 2029 or later.

Political Instability

Tensions escalated significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025.

• German Withdrawal Threat: In October 2025, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius publicly stated that Germany might withdraw from the program if industrial disputes were not resolved by year's end.
• French Rebuttal: In November 2025, French officials, including Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin, questioned the capacity of the German aerospace industry to support a sixth-generation fighter, suggesting that Germany's "Plan B"—potentially joining GCAP—was technically unfeasible in the short term.
• Outcome Uncertainty: As of late 2025, no resolution has been reached, leaving the program in a fragile state with the possibility of a formal breakup or significant restructuring in early 2026.

Technical Comparison of Programs (Status: Nov 2025)

Outlook

As 2025 concludes, the global sixth-generation fighter race has shifted. The United States retains the lead in uncrewed adjuncts (CCAs) and engine technology but has voluntarily surrendered its lead in airframe procurement to reassess affordability. GCAP has capitalized on its streamlined governance to become the most active development program in the Western sphere. Conversely, FCAS appears paralyzed by the classic European defense procurement dynamics of workshare entitlement and political mistrust, facing a decisive "go/no-go" moment in the immediate future.