| Date | 19 May 2026 |
| Tracker | European Airspace Violations |
| Type | Interception |
A Ukrainian drone was shot down over Estonia by a Romanian F-16 — the first time NATO aircraft downed a drone in Estonian airspace during the war. Two Romanian jets of the Carpathian Vipers detachment on the Baltic Air Policing mission were scrambled by the Combined Air Operations Centre at Uedem before the decision to engage was taken. The drone had entered the south-east of the country from Russia under heavy Russian electronic warfare. Ukraine's defence ministry apologised afterwards. Latvia investigated a reported crossing the same day and found no evidence of one.
| Date | Type | Incident |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Incursion | Two drones that crashed in Lithuania identified as Ukrainian |
| 17 May 2026 | Incursion | Latvia issues border air alert as drone crosses and leaves |
| 20 May 2026 | Incursion | Lithuania issues first-ever red air warning as drone crosses border |
| 21 May 2026 | Incursion | Drone alerts in Lithuania and Latvia scramble NATO aircraft |
GlobalMilitary.net's 2026 inventory snapshot shows nine NATO members — Iceland, Luxembourg, the three Baltic states, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia and Slovenia — hold no fixed-wing fighters, attack aircraft or bombers and depend on Allied air policing.
GlobalMilitary.net's incident log counts 45 established violations of European airspace between January 1 and August 16, 2026, against 31 for the whole of 2025 - and almost all of the growth sits in incidents that ended with a shootdown or an explosion on the ground.
An Italian Eurofighter on NATO Baltic Air Policing duty destroyed an unidentified drone over eastern Latvia before dawn on 14 August, the second time the alliance's quick-reaction force has shot one down over the country this year.